Our investment professionals share and challenge each other’s views, creating a diverse marketplace of ideas for the Wellington Blog.
The upcoming US election is arguably the biggest near-term risk facing global markets right now. Questions continue to swirl around both the election process and the potential outcome, not to mention the looming specter of post-election controversy if it appears that President Trump has lost. The large number of mail-in ballots could mean delayed results and legal challenges, perhaps even civil unrest.
In addition, risk markets would be inclined to initially react poorly to a “blue-wave” scenario where Democrats win the White House and control both houses of Congress, which would likely pave the way for higher corporate taxes and increased government regulation. As of this writing, that looks to be a…
Baseball legend Yogi Berra famously remarked that “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Political elections are no exception, of course. But as difficult as forecasting an election can be, predicting market reactions is arguably even more challenging. That being said, with the 2020 US elections only a few weeks away, now seems an opportune time to think through the various potential outcomes and their implications for fixed income and currency markets.
While most market participants are focused on the presidential election, which party controls the Senate is of equal importance in the event of a Biden victory; it matters less under a Trump presidency given that Democrats control the House of Representatives, with little chance of a flip there. Thus, the three possible outcomes to consider are…
With the US elections only a few weeks away and Democratic nominee Joe Biden holding onto a comfortable lead in most polls, the prospect of a so-called “blue-wave” scenario — where Democrats win the White House and seize control of both houses of Congress — looks more and more plausible with each passing day. (Granted, polls are notoriously fickle and a few weeks is an eternity in politics; anything could still happen between now and November 3.)
Many investors are wary of a blue-wave outcome, fearing it would spell bad news for the US economy and markets. But would it really? After taking a closer look…
The US election runup has begun in earnest. With the Democrat and Republican conventions behind us, the presidential debates coming up, and less than two months to go until voters cast their ballots, investors around the world are increasingly asking how this momentous event may affect the economy and markets. Here are some of our latest thoughts, including how investors might position for November and beyond.
Based on the latest polling (which isn’t foolproof), Trump is trailing Biden in the national polls by around eight percentage points and by an average of five points in key swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. With his…
Amid continued macro uncertainty and a reacceleration of infections in many states, Washington continues to forge a path forward, trying to keep the US economy afloat. In this 18-minute audiocast, we discuss fiscal policy options, take an early look at the election picture, and give a quick assessment of how foreign policy could shift in a Biden administration.
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