Our investment professionals share and challenge each other’s views, creating a diverse marketplace of ideas for the Wellington Blog.
Japan has experienced deflation for much of the past 30 years (Figure 1). That’s the general consensus, so why my titular question? Because what Japan has not had over the past three decades is the sort of broad wage-service deflation that is most feared by economists. Instead, I would characterise Japan’s deflation as having been mostly idiosyncratic in nature.
Japan’s protracted battle with deflation was largely attributable to specific dynamics, including the country’s botched policy response to its 1980s asset-price bubble, whose collapse in 1991 ushered in Japan’s so-called “lost decade” — a period of economic stagnation that lasted until 2001. In addition, I believe the massive…
With an unstable relationship between the US and China looking like a long-term geopolitical reality, pressure to relocate manufacturing away from China is growing. Could neighbouring India, which has a similar population size and rate of economic growth, be positioned to benefit from the shift?
I believe this is not a realistic expectation. Understanding why requires a quick recap of India’s industrial history.
In the decades after India gained independence in 1947, while East Asia was opening up to the rest of the world, Indian manufacturing stagnated under a series of protectionist trade policies and a socialist industrial model that stifled competition, discouraged innovation and encouraged downsizing rather than expansion. Labour was protected to the point of dysfunction, while education and skills languished in the hands of a corrupt and inefficient bureaucracy. India’s location did not help — in a historically poor region far from key sea routes, with poor connections with the West and East Asia.
Reform came in the early 1990s when a spike in oil prices sparked by the Gulf War coincided with a trough in remittances from Indians in the Gulf. With FX reserves for imports and debt servicing running dangerously low, a desperate Indian government secured an emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund in 1991. In exchange, the government implemented sweeping reforms to open up the economy.
By the 1980s, India’s growth was accelerating fast. But it was arguably too…
The short answer is not right now, but potentially down the road. And I believe it’s less about how high inflation can go than it is about the portfolio implications of even moderately higher global inflation, which investors haven’t experienced for most of the past 30 years.
It may seem odd to talk about inflation these days. However, the substantial level of coordination between monetary and fiscal policymaking following the COVID-19 shock, with many central banks providing ample space for fiscal stimuli by buying up newly issued debt, has led to inflation coming up in many discussions with clients lately. A string of recent data releases has also helped put inflation risk back on some clients’ radars.
Nonetheless, I think it’s fair to say that many clients remain to be convinced that inflation poses a real threat to their investment portfolios, particularly because…
I was strongly bullish on Russian equities for most of 2020, but have become decidedly more cautious on the market of late. Why? Potential controversy around the upcoming US election is one reason, but there’s more to the story.
I recently spoke with 16 Russian companies across the financial services, internet, telecom, retail, steel, and oil & gas industries. The good news is that Russia’s economic activity is rebounding, while both corporate and consumer sentiment are inching higher. In addition, the risk of a second COVID-19 wave hitting Russia appears to be relatively low as of this writing. Here’s a cross-section of the sanguine comments I’ve heard from company executives lately…
The upcoming US election is arguably the biggest near-term risk facing global markets right now. Questions continue to swirl around both the election process and the potential outcome, not to mention the looming specter of post-election controversy if it appears that President Trump has lost. The large number of mail-in ballots could mean delayed results and legal challenges, perhaps even civil unrest.
In addition, risk markets would be inclined to initially react poorly to a “blue-wave” scenario where Democrats win the White House and control both houses of Congress, which would likely pave the way for higher corporate taxes and increased government regulation. As of this writing, that looks to be a…
Baseball legend Yogi Berra famously remarked that “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Political elections are no exception, of course. But as difficult as forecasting an election can be, predicting market reactions is arguably even more challenging. That being said, with the 2020 US elections only a few weeks away, now seems an opportune time to think through the various potential outcomes and their implications for fixed income and currency markets.
While most market participants are focused on the presidential election, which party controls the Senate is of equal importance in the event of a Biden victory; it matters less under a Trump presidency given that Democrats control the House of Representatives, with little chance of a flip there. Thus, the three possible outcomes to consider are…
I think the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s newly unveiled framework for its long-run goals and monetary policy strategy, combined with its recent statements, signals a fundamental change in how the central bank will conduct monetary policy from here on.
Prior to the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed would tend to hike interest rates when the unemployment rate fell below NAIRU.1 The Fed’s latest statement made clear that this is no longer a sufficient reason to raise rates, unless accompanied by inflation exceeding its target in order to deliver a 2% average inflation rate.
In general, the communique was dovish in that the Fed is basically saying that it will need to see both low unemployment and above-target inflation before it will consider hiking rates. The Fed’s policy rate is likely going to be…
Localization. Digitization. Industrial protectionism. In the wake of COVID-19, the world is eager to form more resilient supply chains. These efforts could affect a range of industries as well as fiscal and monetary policy. In this 17-minute audiocast, Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha speaks with members of our Global Macro Team about the future of global supply chains.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC)’s September statement and press conference did not deliver any big surprises. The upshot is that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) appears to be committed to maintaining its “dovish” monetary policy stance for the foreseeable future.
Look no further than the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), released in conjunction with the FOMC meeting minutes, in which the majority of participants indicated that Fed policy rates should remain around zero through 2023. This was largely expected, given the recent shift in the Fed’s inflation framework: Whereas the Fed has historically targeted an average inflation rate of 2% over time, under the new framework, the Fed could allow inflation to…
It’s been awhile since the CPI gave us something to think about, but today I believe there is an increased (and growing) probability of an inflationary outcome driven by several factors:
The inflation/deflation outcome will have important portfolio implications for many institutional investors, including…
On 23 March 2020, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) launched the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) — a special-purpose vehicle (SPV) designed to support the corporate-bond market in the face of the COVID-19 crisis. In late June, the Fed released an official list of its initial bond purchases made via this program.
The more I think about the Fed taking the unprecedented step of buying corporate bonds as part of its crisis-response arsenal, the more I believe it’s difficult to overstate the implications. Here are some of my latest thoughts on the matter.
In my view, the Fed’s corporate-bond-buying program:
The COVID-19 crisis has eliminated the brief window for the UK government to provide macro policy clarity and constructively move the Brexit debate forward. I fear that elevated political and economic uncertainty could delay the recovery from the crisis. These longer-term risks are not a market focus currently, but will come to the fore in the recovery.
The UK health crisis is evolving broadly in line with the worst outcomes in Europe but the UK might be a week or two behind. With the Prime Minister recovering from the virus, the government has yet to set out a path to reopening the economy, as at the time of writing. The UK may follow most other European countries with a very gradual opening, but the risk is…
Recent data and developments have altered my view of eurozone economies and equities, increasing and significant downside risk in my view. Doubts about the path ahead have increased, reflecting fundamental uncertainty about the health crisis, the policy response and the subsequent economic recovery. A deep recession, a slow recovery and a steep earnings recession could weigh on eurozone equities. Relative to the recent IMF forecasts, the eurozone is likely to experience a bigger dip and a shallower recovery.
In the medium term — six months to two years — the quantity and quality of the policy support will determine both how fast growth can bounce back and how far longer-term damage through job and firm destruction is avoided.
The ECB’s intervention is extensive, providing ample liquidity and purchasing assets at a high pace. Asset purchases can be scaled up if necessary and I am confident that…
China recently reported that its gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 6.8% year over year in the first quarter of 2020 – the first time in modern history that the nation’s economy has contracted. The contraction was sharper than our tracker had suggested, with the implication being that services (for which robust monthly data are not available) likely fared worse than other parts of China’s economy.
This outcome was largely intuitive and did not come as a surprise to markets in the wake of recent events. Indeed, it’s pretty clear that the COVID-19 outbreak delivered an unprecedented shock to China’s economy – one that hit the services sector harder than it did manufacturing.
On its own, I would have thought that such a poor headline GDP number would have been neutral for Chinese fiscal policy, in the sense that whatever the government did for the remainder of the year, it probably wouldn’t be able to…
As the world struggles to beat back the pandemic and restart economic engines, all eyes are on the US and China. In our newest 20-minute audiocast, we explore how this crisis may affect the great-power relationship, why shifting domestic political landscapes matter, and what the re-designating of key strategic industries may mean for investors.
To be clear, no one can answer that question with any degree of certainty right now. There are still too many unknowns. But for my part, I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where the COVID-19 crisis does not leave an enduring imprint on the global landscape.
By way of context, global growth is currently contracting at its fastest pace since the Great Depression hit in 1929. The range of potential outcomes is broad at this point, but I estimate that the economic fallout from the crisis has already shaved around 7% off global GDP, with more damage to come. Unemployment rates in most countries will likely rise by double digits as tens of millions of jobs are lost worldwide.
The timing of an upward turn in the economy will depend largely on the health care sector, particularly the race to find a COVID-19 vaccine, and the speed at which governments begin to…
COVID-19 may be a symmetric shock in the sense that it hits all countries, but it is asymmetric in its intensity and in individual countries’ capacity to respond. In the eurozone, Italy and Spain currently look particularly hard hit. Their limited fiscal capacity may mean…
While the long-term impact of the COVID-19 outbreak remains unclear, US officials have mobilized massive near-term fiscal and monetary support to stem the fallout. In our latest 20-minute audiocast, we discuss the potential impact on companies, consumers, and government spending when the world comes out the other side. We also touch on a few key foreign policy issues we will continue to watch.
The ECB has published details of its €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP).
When the decision was made last week, the ECB stressed the flexibility of its implementation. This decision is the practical implementation of that:
The last three points were news, I believe, and demonstrate that the ECB will disregard past constraints in order to respond to the pandemic. The remaining constraint is that the purchase amounts are guided by the ECB’s capital key, which…
I think Congress will pass a large piece of fiscal legislation over the next month or so in response to the coronavirus fallout. Subsequent legislation is also possible, depending on the duration of the economic downturn. Given the ideological differences between Democrats and Republicans (and within the parties themselves), the legislative process could easily fail once or twice before ultimate enactment. Any legislation will need to be bipartisan enough to garner the 60 necessary votes in the Senate.
That said, I think Congress will pass something relatively soon, perhaps as early as this week, with an initial size of between 3% – 5% of GDP. (Risks are skewed toward more.) The speed with which equity markets have declined, especially over the past week, has sharpened the urgency within both the Trump administration and Congress. Going forward, Congress can and likely will…
Wellington Management Company LLP (WMC) is an independently owned investment adviser registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). WMC is also registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a commodity trading advisor (CTA) and serves as a CTA to certain clients including registered commodity pools and their operators. WMC provides commodity trading advice to all other clients in reliance on exemptions from CTA registration. WMC, along with its affiliates (collectively, Wellington Management), provides investment management and investment advisory services to institutions around the world. Located in Boston, Massachusetts, Wellington Management also has offices in Chicago, Illinois; Radnor, Pennsylvania; San Francisco, California; Beijing; Frankfurt; Hong Kong; London; Luxembourg; Singapore; Sydney; Tokyo; Toronto; and Zurich. ■ This material is prepared for, and authorized for internal use by, designated institutional and professional investors and their consultants or for such other use as may be authorized by Wellington Management. This material and/or its contents are current at the time of writing and may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the express written consent of Wellington Management. This material is not intended to constitute investment advice or an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase shares or other securities. Investors should always obtain and read an up-to-date investment services description or prospectus before deciding whether to appoint an investment manager or to invest in a fund. Any views expressed herein are those of the author(s), are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may make different investment decisions for different clients.
In Canada, this material is provided by Wellington Management Canada ULC, a British Columbia unlimited liability company registered in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, and Saskatchewan in the categories of Portfolio Manager and Exempt Market Dealer. ■ In Europe (ex. Austria, Germany and Switzerland), this material is provided by Wellington Management International Limited (WMIL), a firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK. This material is directed only at persons (Relevant Persons) who are classified as eligible counterparties or professional clients under the rules of the FCA. This material must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not Relevant Persons. Any investment or investment service to which this material relates is available only to Relevant Persons and will be engaged in only with Relevant Persons. ■ In Austria and Germany, this material is provided by Wellington Management Europe GmbH, which is authorized and regulated by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht – BaFin). This material is directed only at persons (Relevant Persons) who are classified as eligible counterparties or professional clients under the German Securities Trading Act. This material does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation to invest in financial instruments or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz). ■ In Hong Kong, this material is provided to you by Wellington Management Hong Kong Limited (WM Hong Kong), a corporation licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities), and Type 9 (asset management) regulated activities, on the basis that you are a Professional Investor as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance. By accepting this material you acknowledge and agree that this material is provided for your use only and that you will not distribute or otherwise make this material available to any person. ■ In Singapore, this material is provided for your use only by Wellington Management Singapore Pte Ltd (WM Singapore) (Registration Number 201415544E). WM Singapore is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under a Capital Markets Services Licence to conduct fund management activities and is an exempt financial adviser. By accepting this material you represent that you are a non-retail investor and that you will not copy, distribute or otherwise make this material available to any person. ■ In Australia, Wellington Management Australia Pty Ltd (WM Australia) (ABN 19 167 091 090) has authorized the issue of this material for use solely by wholesale clients (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001). By accepting this material, you acknowledge and agree that this material is provided for your use only and that you will not distribute or otherwise make this material available to any person. Wellington Management Company LLP is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence (AFSL) under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of financial services provided to wholesale clients in Australia, subject to certain conditions. Financial services provided by Wellington Management Company LLP are regulated by the SEC under the laws and regulatory requirements of the United States, which are different from the laws applying in Australia. ■ In Japan, Wellington Management Japan Pte Ltd (WM Japan) (Registration Number 199504987R) has been registered as a Financial Instruments Firm with registered number: Director General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kin-Sho) Number 428. WM Japan is a member of the Japan Investment Advisers Association (JIAA), the Investment Trusts Association, Japan (ITA) and the Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association (T2FIFA). ■ WMIL, WM Hong Kong, WM Japan, and WM Singapore are also registered as investment advisers with the SEC; however, they will comply with the substantive provisions of the US Investment Advisers Act only with respect to their US clients.
You are about to enter a website for professional/institutional investors and the information contained herein is not suitable for retail investors. Private/retail investors should not proceed any further.
All materials on this web site are owned or licensed by Wellington Management and/or its third-party providers and are protected by US and international intellectual property laws. Unless otherwise indicated, all service marks, trademarks, and logos appearing on this web site are the exclusive property of Wellington Management. The information, materials, and other content of this web site may not be copied, displayed, distributed, downloaded, licensed, modified, published, reposted, reproduced, reused, sold, transmitted, used to create a derivative work, or otherwise used for public or commercial purposes without the express written consent of Wellington Management.
Products and services
The information, materials, products, and services on this web site are current at the time of writing and are subject to change. Not all products and services are available in all geographic areas. Your eligibility for particular products or services is subject to determination by and the approval of Wellington Management. No solicitation is made by Wellington Management to any person to use any information, materials, products, or services in any jurisdiction where the provision of such information, materials, products, and services is prohibited by law.
The information on this web site or in any communication containing a link to this web site is not intended to constitute investment advice or an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase shares or other securities.
Investment products and services are available through Wellington Management. Investment products and services are not FDIC-insured, are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by, any bank, and involve investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Investors should always obtain and read an up-to-date investment services description or prospectus before deciding whether to appoint an investment manager or invest in a fund.
Wellington Management makes no warranties that materials on this web site are appropriate for use in countries other than the US. Because the web site may be accessed internationally, you agree to comply with all local laws, rules, and regulations including, without limitation, all laws, rules and regulations in effect in the country in which you reside and the country from which you access the web site. The information on this web site is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation, or which would subject Wellington Management or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country.
Wellington Management does not warrant the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, or timeliness of the information, materials, products, and services on this web site or the error-free use of this web site. All information, materials, products, and services are “as is” and “as available.” No warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to the warranties of non-infringement of third-party rights, title, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and freedom from computer virus is given in conjunction with the information, materials, products, and services. Any views expressed herein are those of the author(s), are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may make different investment decisions for different clients. Wellington Management does not warrant that the web site will meet your needs. You agree to assume the entire risk as to your use of the web site.
Limitation of liability
In no event shall Wellington Management be liable for any damages, losses, or liabilities including without limitation, direct or indirect, special incidental, consequential damages, losses, or liabilities, in connection with your use of this web site or your reliance on or use or inability to use the information, materials, products, and services on this web site, or in connection with any failure of performance, error, omission, interruption, defect, delay in operation or transmission, computer virus, or line or system failure, even if Wellington Management is advised of the possibility of such damages, losses, or expenses.
YOU UNDERSTAND AND AGREE THAT YOUR USE OF THIS WEB SITE IS PREDICATED UPON YOUR WAIVER OF ANY RIGHT TO SUE WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT OR ITS AFFILIATES DIRECTLY OR TO PARTICIPATE IN A SUIT FOR ANY LOSSES OR DAMAGES RESULTING FROM YOUR USE OF THIS WEB SITE.
As a condition of your use of the Services, you agree to indemnify and hold Wellington Management, its affiliates, and its and their respective partners, directors, employees, and agents harmless from and against any and all claims, losses, liability, costs, and expenses (including but not limited to attorneys’ fees) arising from your use of the web site or from your violation of these Terms.
Your use of the hyperlinks on this web site to other Internet web sites is at your own risk. Wellington Management is not responsible for the content or accuracy of third-party web sites hyperlinked from this web site, nor does it guarantee the products or services offered on third-party web sites. You should review the privacy statements of a web site before you provide any personal or confidential information.
Web site security and restrictions on use
As a condition to your use of Services, you agree that you will not, and you will not take any action intended to: (i) access data that is not intended for you; (ii) invade the privacy of, obtain the identity of, or obtain any personal information about any other user of this web site; (iii) probe, scan, or test the vulnerability of this web site or Wellington Management’s network or breach security or authentication measures without proper authorization; (iv) attempt to interfere with service to any user, host, or network or otherwise attempt to disrupt our business; or (v) send unsolicited mail, including promotions and/or advertising of products and services. Unauthorized use of the web site or Services, including but not limited to unauthorized entry into Wellington Management’s systems, misuse of passwords, or misuse of any information posted to a web site, is strictly prohibited. Portions of the web site are designated for password access only as indicated by a lock icon. In these instances, if you do not have an authorized password, no access is permitted.
Confidentiality and password security
Certain parts of this web site may be protected by passwords or require a login. You are responsible for maintaining the confidentiality of any user names, passwords, security questions, and answers. All information available through the privileged area of the site is confidential and proprietary to us. This includes all investment information and results, offering materials, financial statements, and other information provided through this part of the site.
You will use your best efforts to keep all this information strictly confidential. You will not disclose any of this information to any person or use it for any purpose other than those strictly permitted by us, in writing.
If any provision of these Terms is deemed unlawful, void, or for any reason unenforceable, then that provision will be reformed only to the extent necessary to make it enforceable, and it will be deemed severable from these Terms and will not affect the validity and enforceability of the remaining provisions.
These Terms and any action related thereto are governed by Massachusetts law and applicable US federal law. Any dispute relating to the above shall be resolved solely in the state or federal courts located in Massachusetts.
Wellington Management respects the privacy of its clients and the confidentiality of information pertaining to its clients.
Information we collect
We may collect non-public personal information about you on RFPs, questionnaires, and other forms we receive from you, as well as from personal contacts such as correspondence, e-mail, telephone calls, or meetings. We may also receive information about you from third parties, such as your accountants, lawyers, financial consultants, and/or other service providers.
It also is possible to receive information from web browsers and apps regarding certain of your online activities using cookies, or other common tracking technologies. Some web browsers and other applications may provide a Do Not Track (DNT) preference setting. When a user turns on a tracking preference, the browser or application may send a message to web sites requesting that they do or do not track the user. At this time, we take no actions in response to any DNT settings or messages.
Wellington Management seeks to provide seamless service to all clients. To facilitate that process, information regarding client accounts is shared broadly between affiliates within the Wellington Management group of companies. For example, an affiliate may share information with other affiliates in order to facilitate portfolio management or provide client liaison services to a particular client. Client information may be used by Wellington Management in order to identify potential client needs for additional investment management services.
Wellington Management generally does not share non-public client information with unaffiliated third parties, except as necessary to perform the investment management services it has been hired to provide. For example, Wellington Management may share non-public client information with brokers and custodian banks in order to buy and sell securities and record those purchases and sales accurately. As a general rule, Wellington Management does not engage in joint marketing arrangements with unaffiliated third parties that involve the sharing of non-public information regarding Wellington Management’s clients. Wellington Management does not provide client information to unaffiliated third parties for their own marketing purposes.
Wellington Management does not disclose your information except as required or permitted by law. In the event that Wellington Management is involved in a merger, acquisition, reorganization or sale of assets, or bankruptcy, your information may be transferred or sold as part of that transaction.
We use technical, administrative, and procedural measures in an attempt to safeguard your personal and other information from unauthorized access or use. No such measure is ever 100% effective though, so we do not guarantee that your personal and other information will be secure from theft, loss, or unauthorized access or use, and we make no representation as to the reasonableness, efficacy, or appropriateness of the measures we use to safeguard such information. Users are responsible for maintaining the secrecy of their own passwords. If you have reason to believe that your interaction with us is no longer secure (for example, if you feel that the security of any account you might have with us has been compromised), please immediately notify us by contacting your relationship team member.
Transfer of data to other countries
Any information you provide to Wellington Management through use of the Site may be stored and processed, transferred between, and accessed from the US and other countries which may not guarantee the same level of protection of personal information as the one in which you reside. However, Wellington Management will handle your personal information in accordance with this Privacy Statement regardless of where your personal information is stored/accessed.
We may revise these Terms from time to time; the most current version will always be at https://www.wellington.com/terms-use. By continuing to access or use the Services after those revisions become effective, you agree to be bound by the revised Terms.
Effective as of 17 January 2014