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The short answer is no, but it’s not completely hyperbolic to suggest we could be heading in that direction longer term.

Several of my Wellington colleagues and I are collaborating on an ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical research project around the theme of “Biden and the world.” This blog post encapsulates some of my latest contributions to that effort, with a focus on the US-China relationship and the latter country’s growing role on the world stage.

China could become the world’s largest economy on President Biden’s watch.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the US was the world’s biggest economy as of year-end 2020, with a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of US$20.8 trillion, followed by China at US$14.9 trillion. However, a December 2020 report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research stated that the size of China’s economy could surpass that of the US by…

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Santiago Millan headshot
Santiago Millán
CFA
Macro Strategist
Hong Kong

The Biden presidency, bolstered by Democratic majorities in the US Senate and House of Representatives, indicates a paradigm shift in climate policy at the highest levels of government. Along with immediately rejoining the Paris Agreement, President Biden has announced ambitious plans to position the US as a global leader in several climate-related areas, including clean energy, clean technology, and sustainable infrastructure.

Biden’s plan views climate change as an “existential threat — not just to our environment, but to our health, our communities, our national security, and our economic well-being.”1 The initiative also includes language linking clean energy with job growth, a connection I’ve been…

SUSTAINABILITY

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Chris Goolgasian
Chris Goolgasian
CFA, CPA, CAIA
Director of Climate Research
Boston

With the Democrats having secured a narrow sweep of the White House and Congress, where will the new Biden administration set its policy focus? We know that pandemic control and economic stimulus will be top priorities, and I expect climate change, trade, and inequality to be on the list as well — with a range of investment implications.

Starting with the health and economic crises

In his January 14 speech, Biden made it clear that he sees a need for more stimulus, as he rolled out a US$1.9 trillion proposal. The new president’s negotiating skills will be tested as he works to move the proposal forward, and the details and dollar amounts will surely evolve. Ultimately, I think the next package will come by March 14, when unemployment benefits are set to expire. In addition to an extension of those benefits, the package could include a third round of stimulus checks, more state and local aid, and an extension of the eviction moratorium. In addition, I would expect more…

MACRO

ARCHIVED

Juhi Dhawan headshot
Juhi Dhawan
PhD
Macro Strategist
Boston

With the Democrats having secured a narrow sweep of the White House and Congress, where will the new Biden administration set its policy focus? We know that pandemic control and economic stimulus will be top priorities, and I expect climate change, trade, and inequality to be on the list as well — with a range of investment implications.

Starting with the health and economic crises

In his January 14 speech, Biden made it clear that he sees a need for more stimulus, as he rolled out a US$1.9 trillion proposal. The new president’s negotiating skills will be tested as he works to move the proposal forward, and the details and dollar amounts will surely evolve. Ultimately, I think the next package will come by March 14, when unemployment benefits are set to expire. In addition to an extension of those benefits, the package could include a third round of stimulus checks, more state and local aid, and an extension of the eviction moratorium. In addition, I would expect more…

MACRO

ARCHIVED

Juhi Dhawan headshot
Juhi Dhawan
PhD
Macro Strategist
Boston

Previewing the Biden economic and foreign policy plans

In this 25-minute video, Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha, Macro Strategist Michael Medeiros, and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson explore the investment implications of Biden’s domestic and foreign policy agenda and opine on which asset classes, factors, and industries they expect to outperform in this new environment.

video-iframe

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MARKETS

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Thomas Mucha
Thomas Mucha
Geopolitical Strategist
Boston
Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson
Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson
Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist
Boston
Michael Medeiros
Michael Medeiros
CFA
Macro Strategist
Boston

Bilateral relations between the US and China have gone from bad to worse in recent months.

On 12 November 2020, President Trump issued an executive order (EO) that prohibits US investors from transacting in publicly traded securities of entities classified by the Department of Defense as “Communist Chinese military companies (CCMCs).” Slated to take effect on 11 January 2021, the EO fueled my concern that the outgoing administration would attempt to derail the US-China relationship before President-elect Biden takes office (on 20 January). I wouldn’t be surprised to see further efforts on this front before Trump leaves the White House.

So with that as a springboard, how might the fractured US-China dynamic evolve during Biden’s upcoming first term? I envision four potential paths…

MACRO
THEMES

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Thomas Mucha
Thomas Mucha
Geopolitical Strategist
Boston
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