Our investment professionals share and challenge each other’s views, creating a diverse marketplace of ideas for the Wellington Blog.
The US election is just days away. Voting has begun in earnest and markets are on tenterhooks. Here are our latest thoughts, including how investors might position for November and beyond.
There’s been a marked shift in the perception that a blue-wave outcome — where Democrats win the White House and both chambers of Congress — would be the “worst-case scenario” for financial markets. That’s because the current impasse in getting another fiscal stimulus package passed would likely be broken with both chambers controlled by Democrats, paving the way for passage of a large stimulus package worth around US$2 – 3 trillion. (See October 8 blog post, Who’s afraid of the big, bad blue wave?, for additional thoughts on that.)
As of this writing, former Vice President Biden retains an Electoral College advantage, with…
With the prospect of a Democratic sweep looking more and more plausible with each passing day leading up to the US election, some observers note that such an outcome could usher in major policy shifts in taxation, health care, energy, and perhaps tech regulation for 2021 and beyond. Should investors start repositioning their portfolios accordingly? Not so fast.
I tend to be skeptical of government policy-driven trades playing out to the extent that financial markets often anticipate. Indeed, there have been several political changes in recent years whose impact on assets has turned out to be fleeting and, in some cases, just the opposite of…
With the US elections only a few weeks away and Democratic nominee Joe Biden holding onto a comfortable lead in most polls, the prospect of a so-called “blue-wave” scenario — where Democrats win the White House and seize control of both houses of Congress — looks more and more plausible with each passing day. (Granted, polls are notoriously fickle and a few weeks is an eternity in politics; anything could still happen between now and November 3.)
Many investors are wary of a blue-wave outcome, fearing it would spell bad news for the US economy and markets. But would it really? After taking a closer look…
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