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More than two months into the Biden administration, some important contours of the post-Trump approach to US-China relations have begun to crystallize.

The president’s foreign policy team is coming together (including key positions for US-China policy), US military strategy is becoming clearer, and supply-chain management is a growing area of concern. Meanwhile, government reports released earlier this month — on artificial intelligence, trade policy, and national security priorities — have helped to better define the administration’s thinking on…

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THEMES
Thomas Mucha
Thomas Mucha
Geopolitical Strategist
Boston

Previewing the Biden economic and foreign policy plans

In this 25-minute video, Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha, Macro Strategist Michael Medeiros, and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson explore the investment implications of Biden’s domestic and foreign policy agenda and opine on which asset classes, factors, and industries they expect to outperform in this new environment.

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MARKETS
Thomas Mucha
Thomas Mucha
Geopolitical Strategist
Boston
Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson
Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson
Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist
Boston
Michael Medeiros
Michael Medeiros
CFA
Macro Strategist
Boston

“Dual circulation” has become the latest catchphrase in geopolitical chatter around China. Broadly speaking, it refers to the government’s long-term plan to power the Chinese economy through both external and internal channels — but with more emphasis on the latter by spurring household incomes and domestic consumption. (See my last blog post: Consumers are the engine of China’s growth.) In that sense, it’s consistent with the ongoing theme of China’s decoupling from the US and other countries.

In my view, dual circulation is not really a departure from the path China has been on for some time now, but rather a formalization of some aspects with a name attached to it. That being said, I have a few differences of opinion on what it means relative to many interpretations I have read in the media.

1. The word “circulation” matters

The mainstream narrative is that dual circulation marks a sharp pivot inward and a “closing off” of the Chinese economy as part of a stepped-up drive toward self-sufficiency. I have a somewhat different take. The way I see it, the thrust of the plan is to…

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Santiago Millan headshot
Santiago Millán
CFA
Macro Strategist
Hong Kong
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Given recent developments in the bad-to-worse US-China relationship, I’d like to share my latest views on what I see as the most consequential long-term geopolitical issue the world has faced in decades.

Lay of the landscape

  • The US-China relationship is in long-term structural decline, exacerbated in recent months by the COVID-19 pandemic and its domestic political fallout. Both the Trump administration and President Xi’s government have tried to divert blame away from their respective management of the severe health and economic crisis.
  • Recent polling data reflects this downward spiral in bilateral relations and suggests the “bash China” approach adopted by many US politicians has gained favor with the populace. According to the Pew Research Center, 66% percent of all Americans (and 72% of GOP voters) had a negative view of China as of March 2020.
  • US-China rhetoric will likely only heat up going forward as the November 2020 US elections draw near, potentially causing…
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ARCHIVED

Thomas Mucha
Thomas Mucha
Geopolitical Strategist
Boston

The impact of the US-China trade conflict could be longer-lasting and farther-reaching than many investors realize.

The conflict carries implications for innovation and productivity, which ultimately drive economic growth. Innovation depends, in part, on inputs from abroad via the flow of trade (goods), investments (capital), and human interactions (people). Restrictions on these channels can hamper innovation and productivity.

China and the US are imposing curbs on these channels, to the likely detriment of both countries. By contrast, trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) look poised to pick up for some emerging market (EM) countries, to their potential benefit…

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Tushar Poddar
Tushar Poddar
PhD
Macro Strategist
London
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