MAIN MENU

#WellSaid

Our investment professionals share and challenge each other’s views, creating a diverse marketplace of ideas for the Wellington Blog.

US Federal Reserve

No data was found
Load More

Archive

Whiffs of the long-awaited “taper talk” around US monetary policy are finally in the air. The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC’s) June 2021 statement and press conference indicated that the FOMC has discussed when it ought to start tapering its large-scale asset purchases amid the ongoing economic rebound and mounting inflationary pressures.

The FOMC upgraded its US growth and inflation forecasts, yet kept its unemployment rate forecast unchanged, as labor supply shortages in an environment of strong consumption are leading to higher inflation than the FOMC previously anticipated. The increasing inflationary risks also resulted in the median FOMC participant now expecting to hike interest rates twice during…

MACRO

ARCHIVED

Jeremy Forster
Jeremy Forster
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager
Boston

When Janet Yellen was confirmed as US Treasury Secretary in January 2021, questions inevitably resurfaced as to whether the Treasury should begin issuing a 50-year or even a 100-year ultralong note.

Just a few years ago, the Treasury’s debt managers, in consultation with the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC), reviewed the potential issuance and concluded that it would not meet the Office of Debt Management (ODM)’s mandate of financing the government at the lowest possible cost of debt. Moreover, an ultralong note would present a challenge to the Treasury’s goal of “regular and predictable” issuance.

My purpose here is not to advocate for or against ultralong issuance, but rather to…

MACRO

ARCHIVED

Amar Reganti
Amar Reganti
Investment Director
Boston

Investors can breathe a collective sigh of relief — for now anyway. The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC’s) March statement and press conference suggested that the FOMC is likely to look through any inflation pickups this year and wait until the labor market has recovered to assess whether inflation can sustainably stay around 2%.

The FOMC projects significant improvement in the unemployment rate and a modest overshoot of its 2% average inflation target in 2021. But even against expectations for higher growth and inflation this year, the median FOMC member’s forecast still anticipated the…

MACRO

ARCHIVED

Jeremy Forster
Jeremy Forster
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager
Boston

The number one question most cash investors are asking themselves (and us) these days is: How long are we going to be stuck in this “zero-bound” range for short-duration interest rates? Here are our latest thoughts on that and related matters.

  • All eyes on short-term rates: We expect the short end of the US yield curve to remain anchored lower for the foreseeable future, but we believe the risks are skewed to the upside in the second half of 2021 due to COVID-vaccine progress, a gradually reopening (and recovering) economy, and the massive amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus already flowing through the system. Those factors may result in mounting inflationary pressures in the months ahead, which in turn could lead the market to begin pricing in higher short-term rates (i.e., a potential Fed rate hike) sooner than currently anticipated.
  • No Fed? No problem: As of year-end 2020, the permanent closure of some of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lending facilities that were created by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES) Act —particularly the credit facilities (PMCCF and SMCCF) and TALF — removed…

 

MARKETS

ARCHIVED

Caroline Casavant
Caroline Casavant
Investment Analyst
Boston
Andrew Bayerl
Andrew Bayerl
CFA, CAIA
Investment Director
Boston

The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC’s) December statement and press conference provided additional assurance that asset buying would continue for the foreseeable future, noting that purchases of US Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) would proceed at their current pace at least until “substantial further progress has been made” on the labor market and inflation outlooks.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) appears committed to its dovish monetary policy stance and will likely continue to provide extraordinary accommodation as long as necessary. This is largely because, despite ongoing improvement, the US economic outlook remains highly uncertain. A downside surprise regarding… 

MACRO

ARCHIVED

Jeremy Forster
Jeremy Forster
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager
Boston

I think the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s newly unveiled framework for its long-run goals and monetary policy strategy, combined with its recent statements, signals a fundamental change in how the central bank will conduct monetary policy from here on.

Prior to the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed would tend to hike interest rates when the unemployment rate fell below NAIRU.1 The Fed’s latest statement made clear that this is no longer a sufficient reason to raise rates, unless accompanied by inflation exceeding its target in order to deliver a 2% average inflation rate.

A closer look at the new framework

In general, the communique was dovish in that the Fed is basically saying that it will need to see both low unemployment and above-target inflation before it will consider hiking rates. The Fed’s policy rate is likely going to be…

MACRO

ARCHIVED

Brij Khurana
Brij Khurana
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager
Boston

The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC)’s September statement and press conference did not deliver any big surprises. The upshot is that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) appears to be committed to maintaining its “dovish” monetary policy stance for the foreseeable future.

Look no further than the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), released in conjunction with the FOMC meeting minutes, in which the majority of participants indicated that Fed policy rates should remain around zero through 2023. This was largely expected, given the recent shift in the Fed’s inflation framework: Whereas the Fed has historically targeted an average inflation rate of 2% over time, under the new framework, the Fed could allow inflation to…

MACRO

ARCHIVED

Jeremy Forster
Jeremy Forster
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager
Boston

On 23 March 2020, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) launched the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) — a special-purpose vehicle (SPV) designed to support the corporate-bond market in the face of the COVID-19 crisis. In late June, the Fed released an official list of its initial bond purchases made via this program.

The more I think about the Fed taking the unprecedented step of buying corporate bonds as part of its crisis-response arsenal, the more I believe it’s difficult to overstate the implications. Here are some of my latest thoughts on the matter.

Five thoughts on the program

In my view, the Fed’s corporate-bond-buying program:

  1. Minimizes tail funding risk. Many US corporate-bond issuers were distressed and deemed to be at risk of bankruptcy as recently as a few months ago. Then came the Fed’s bond-buying program, which is aimed at removing tail funding risk, primarily for corporates that “should” survive (based on their investment-grade ratings pre-COVID-19). The terms of the program have since been…
MACRO

ARCHIVED

Jeremy Forster
Jeremy Forster
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager
Boston

Given the weak economic data and considerable uncertainty clouding today’s landscape, I must admit to being a bit skeptical about how long the current rally in risk assets can last. But in the interest of staying open to alternative views, I recently listened to an economist for a major Japanese financial company deliver a refreshingly optimistic take on the global economy and markets. 

His main point was simply that this is the first time in modern history where fiscal and monetary policy are working together – both are coordinated, both are easing – because inflation is nowhere in sight. Usually, those two policy levers work against each other (i.e., “tight fiscal/loose monetary” or “loose fiscal/tight monetary”). 

The atypical “loose fiscal/loose monetary” regime we have now sends a powerful signal to the markets, regardless of the damage done to…

MACRO

ARCHIVED

John Li
John Li
CFA
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager
Boston
Load More
Share on linkedin
Share on email

Categories

Trending posts

DISCLOSURES

Wellington Management Company LLP (WMC) is an independently owned investment adviser registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). WMC is also registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a commodity trading advisor (CTA) and serves as a CTA to certain clients including registered commodity pools and their operators. WMC provides commodity trading advice to all other clients in reliance on exemptions from CTA registration. WMC, along with its affiliates (collectively, Wellington Management), provides investment management and investment advisory services to institutions around the world. Located in Boston, Massachusetts, Wellington Management also has offices in Chicago, Illinois; Radnor, Pennsylvania; San Francisco, California; Beijing; Frankfurt; Hong Kong; London; Luxembourg; Singapore; Sydney; Tokyo; Toronto; and Zurich. ■ This material is prepared for, and authorized for internal use by, designated institutional and professional investors and their consultants or for such other use as may be authorized by Wellington Management. This material and/or its contents are current at the time of writing and may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the express written consent of Wellington Management. This material is not intended to constitute investment advice or an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase shares or other securities. Investors should always obtain and read an up-to-date investment services description or prospectus before deciding whether to appoint an investment manager or to invest in a fund. Any views expressed herein are those of the author(s), are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may make different investment decisions for different clients.

In Canada, this material is provided by Wellington Management Canada ULC, a British Columbia unlimited liability company registered in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, and Saskatchewan in the categories of Portfolio Manager and Exempt Market Dealer. ■ In Europe (ex. Austria, Germany and Switzerland), this material is provided by Wellington Management International Limited (WMIL), a firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK. This material is directed only at persons (Relevant Persons) who are classified as eligible counterparties or professional clients under the rules of the FCA. This material must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not Relevant Persons. Any investment or investment service to which this material relates is available only to Relevant Persons and will be engaged in only with Relevant Persons. ■ In Austria and Germany, this material is provided by Wellington Management Europe GmbH, which is authorized and regulated by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht – BaFin). This material is directed only at persons (Relevant Persons) who are classified as eligible counterparties or professional clients under the German Securities Trading Act. This material does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation to invest in financial instruments or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz). ■ In Hong Kong, this material is provided to you by Wellington Management Hong Kong Limited (WM Hong Kong), a corporation licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities), and Type 9 (asset management) regulated activities, on the basis that you are a Professional Investor as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance. By accepting this material you acknowledge and agree that this material is provided for your use only and that you will not distribute or otherwise make this material available to any person. ■ In Singapore, this material is provided for your use only by Wellington Management Singapore Pte Ltd (WM Singapore) (Registration Number 201415544E). WM Singapore is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under a Capital Markets Services Licence to conduct fund management activities and is an exempt financial adviser. By accepting this material you represent that you are a non-retail investor and that you will not copy, distribute or otherwise make this material available to any person. ■ In Australia, Wellington Management Australia Pty Ltd (WM Australia) (ABN 19 167 091 090) has authorized the issue of this material for use solely by wholesale clients (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001). By accepting this material, you acknowledge and agree that this material is provided for your use only and that you will not distribute or otherwise make this material available to any person. Wellington Management Company LLP is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence (AFSL) under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of financial services provided to wholesale clients in Australia, subject to certain conditions. Financial services provided by Wellington Management Company LLP are regulated by the SEC under the laws and regulatory requirements of the United States, which are different from the laws applying in Australia. ■ In Japan, Wellington Management Japan Pte Ltd (WM Japan) (Registration Number 199504987R) has been registered as a Financial Instruments Firm with registered number: Director General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kin-Sho) Number 428. WM Japan is a member of the Japan Investment Advisers Association (JIAA), the Investment Trusts Association, Japan (ITA) and the Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association (T2FIFA). ■ WMIL, WM Hong Kong, WM Japan, and WM Singapore are also registered as investment advisers with the SEC; however, they will comply with the substantive provisions of the US Investment Advisers Act only with respect to their US clients.

Wellington Management logo

Contact Us

*Mandatory Field

Contact Us

*Mandatory Field