Our perspective on global micro event and strategies.
I think one of the biggest catalysts behind the general rise of the US dollar (USD) over the last 10 years or so has been the marked improvement we have seen in the US energy trade balance.
The so-called “shale revolution” has benefited the US economy in myriad ways, from enhanced productivity to higher levels of employment and increased tax revenues. However, the degree to which it has helped to moderate the underlying deterioration in the US current-account deficit has gone largely underappreciated. That, in turn, has been a tailwind for the USD for most of the past decade. I’m just not sure how much longer…