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Jamie Rice
Jamie Rice
CFA
Equity Portfolio Manager

Industry experience

With Wellington

26
17

Jamie is a portfolio manager responsible for Latin America and broader Emerging Markets portfolios. Supported by Wellington Management’s extensive independent fundamental research resources, Jamie draws on the insights of the firm’s other Emerging Markets equity portfolio teams, the Emerging Markets Debt Team, global industry analysts, and macroanalysts. Previously, Jamie worked as an equity research analyst covering Latin America for another emerging markets team.

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The recent flurry of US sanctions leveled against Russia has aggravated frictions between the two nations and cast a long shadow of doubt on the Russian equity market.

Russian President Vladmir Putin more or less forced US President Biden’s hand when he deployed an EU-estimated 150,000 troops to the Ukrainian border. However, pressure had already been mounting for the US to get tougher on Russia following the country’s unprecedented SolarWinds hacking operation and its largely unsuccessful attempts to interfere in the 2020 US presidential election.

The “new normal” for US-Russia relations

Based on these troubling incidents, it seems we have entered a “new normal” in US-Russia relations and should expect risk premiums in Russia’s equity market to…

MACRO
MARKETS
Jamie Rice
Jamie Rice
CFA
Equity Portfolio Manager
Boston
Thomas Mucha
Thomas Mucha
Geopolitical Strategist
Boston

I’m often asked lately: Why are you so bullish on emerging markets (EM) equities these days? What makes the story so compelling, and what’s driving it? Let’s take a look, and while we’re at it, I’ll share my latest thoughts on China’s burgeoning A-share market. 

A flood of liquidity, a sprinkle of taper

I believe the broad opportunity set in EM equities is particularly attractive today, fueled in part by the unprecedented amount of liquidity in global markets. China’s was the first EM central bank to begin tightening monetary policy. In the US, real interest rates moved unexpectedly higher recently, which has led to some market tension within EMs between prospects for stronger global growth and whether or not higher real rates will persist. Brazil and Russia are also…

MARKETS
THEMES
Jamie Rice
Jamie Rice
CFA
Equity Portfolio Manager
Boston
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When I think of “old school” emerging markets (EMs), I think of Mexico. What started out as an exercise to determine if Mexico could be a “Biden trade” soon turned into my belief that some Mexican equities could perform well going forward regardless of the election outcome.

Mexico is not a “COVID reopening” trade, in my view, because President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) neither locked the country down aggressively amid the pandemic, nor took any bold steps to stimulate the market. In fact, by not pursuing deficit spending in response to COVID, Mexico’s balance sheet may hold up better than most EMs’ heading into 2021.

More to the point for investors, some Mexican companies appear to be pivoting toward…

MARKETS
THEMES
Jamie Rice
Jamie Rice
CFA
Equity Portfolio Manager
Boston

I was strongly bullish on Russian equities for most of 2020, but have become decidedly more cautious on the market of late. Why? Potential controversy around the upcoming US election is one reason, but there’s more to the story.

First, the good news

I recently spoke with 16 Russian companies across the financial services, internet, telecom, retail, steel, and oil & gas industries. The good news is that Russia’s economic activity is rebounding, while both corporate and consumer sentiment are inching higher. In addition, the risk of a second COVID-19 wave hitting Russia appears to be relatively low as of this writing. Here’s a cross-section of the sanguine comments I’ve heard from company executives lately…

MACRO
Jamie Rice
Jamie Rice
CFA
Equity Portfolio Manager
Boston

In my last blog post from June, I encouraged readers to look beyond China for emerging market (EM) equity opportunities against the supportive macro backdrop of unprecedented global stimulus, a low but improving purchasing managers’ index (PMI), and a weaker US dollar. I recommended that investors favor corporate business models that are likely to deliver resilient, better-than-expected earnings growth going forward.

Fast forward to August: I remain constructive on EM equities overall and believe we are on the cusp of several quarters of EM earnings recovery and upgrades.

What has changed since June?

Back in June, I believed that the countries on the clearest recovery paths from COVID-19 — North Asian markets like China, South Korea, and Taiwan — warranted the largest EM exposures in investor portfolios. At the time, I also suggested that…

MARKETS
Jamie Rice
Jamie Rice
CFA
Equity Portfolio Manager
Boston

Recent global liquidity injections, a low but improving global purchasing managers’ index (PMI), and a weaker US dollar are all contributing to a supportive backdrop for emerging market (EM) equities. To the extent that these trends persist in the period ahead, I believe EM stocks can continue posting attractive relative performance. Now may be a good time to look beyond China for EM equity opportunities.

Recovery paths matter

One encouraging sign is that more cyclical sectors and regions (e.g., travel and bank stocks; Latin America, ASEAN, and Russia) have rebounded along with broader EM equities over the past several weeks, as we have seen…

CORONAVIRUS
MARKETS
Jamie Rice
Jamie Rice
CFA
Equity Portfolio Manager
Boston
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