Our perspective on global micro event and strategies.
John is a portfolio manager and specializes in currency strategies, with a specific focus on G10 currencies. He has been a member of the team since 2014.
It would be interesting to hear Churchill’s thoughts on the current crisis. Sadly, we will never know, but we do know he didn’t think much of currency traders:
“There is no sphere of human thought in which it is easier for a man to show superficial cleverness and the appearance of superior wisdom than in discussing questions of currency and exchange.”
With those stinging words ringing in my ears, here are my thoughts on currencies in the current environment.
I think the euro will face an existential moment in the coming weeks. That can be avoided if the eurozone countries move to risk-sharing and towards a full fiscal transfer mechanism. Since adopting the single currency, Italy has hugely underperformed (30% below the average level of GDP of other member states, as we enter this crisis) and has suffered high…