Our perspective on global micro event and strategies.
Mike is a member of the firm’s Global Macro Strategy Group. In this capacity, he focuses on macro forecasting and analysis for the dollar-bloc economies, including the US, Canada, and New Zealand, and on US fiscal policy and politics. He contributes to the management of global portfolios for the firm’s clients around the world, and his research is critical to investors throughout the firm as he translates macro data into investable ideas and themes.
In this 25-minute video, Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha, Macro Strategist Michael Medeiros, and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson explore the investment implications of Biden’s domestic and foreign policy agenda and opine on which asset classes, factors, and industries they expect to outperform in this new environment.
The US election is just days away. Voting has begun in earnest and markets are on tenterhooks. Here are our latest thoughts, including how investors might position for November and beyond.
There’s been a marked shift in the perception that a blue-wave outcome — where Democrats win the White House and both chambers of Congress — would be the “worst-case scenario” for financial markets. That’s because the current impasse in getting another fiscal stimulus package passed would likely be broken with both chambers controlled by Democrats, paving the way for passage of a large stimulus package worth around US$2 – 3 trillion. (See October 8 blog post, Who’s afraid of the big, bad blue wave?, for additional thoughts on that.)
As of this writing, former Vice President Biden retains an Electoral College advantage, with…
With the US elections only a few weeks away and Democratic nominee Joe Biden holding onto a comfortable lead in most polls, the prospect of a so-called “blue-wave” scenario — where Democrats win the White House and seize control of both houses of Congress — looks more and more plausible with each passing day. (Granted, polls are notoriously fickle and a few weeks is an eternity in politics; anything could still happen between now and November 3.)
Many investors are wary of a blue-wave outcome, fearing it would spell bad news for the US economy and markets. But would it really? After taking a closer look…
The US election runup has begun in earnest. With the Democrat and Republican conventions behind us, the presidential debates coming up, and less than two months to go until voters cast their ballots, investors around the world are increasingly asking how this momentous event may affect the economy and markets. Here are some of our latest thoughts, including how investors might position for November and beyond.
Based on the latest polling (which isn’t foolproof), Trump is trailing Biden in the national polls by around eight percentage points and by an average of five points in key swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. With his…
Amid continued macro uncertainty and a reacceleration of infections in many states, Washington continues to forge a path forward, trying to keep the US economy afloat. In this 18-minute audiocast, we discuss fiscal policy options, take an early look at the election picture, and give a quick assessment of how foreign policy could shift in a Biden administration.
I think Congress will pass a large piece of fiscal legislation over the next month or so in response to the coronavirus fallout. Subsequent legislation is also possible, depending on the duration of the economic downturn. Given the ideological differences between Democrats and Republicans (and within the parties themselves), the legislative process could easily fail once or twice before ultimate enactment. Any legislation will need to be bipartisan enough to garner the 60 necessary votes in the Senate.
That said, I think Congress will pass something relatively soon, perhaps as early as this week, with an initial size of between 3% – 5% of GDP. (Risks are skewed toward more.) The speed with which equity markets have declined, especially over the past week, has sharpened the urgency within both the Trump administration and Congress. Going forward, Congress can and likely will…