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Wen Shi
Wen Shi
PhD, CFA
Global Industry Analyst

Industry experience

With Wellington

12
5

As a member of the Health Care Team, Wen conducts fundamental research on public and private global biotechnology companies.

 

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The November 2020 election of US President Biden and a Democrat-led Congress rekindled many health care investors’ fears of sweeping drug-price reform that could be an albatross around the neck of the pharmaceutical industry. So far in 2021, there has been some legislative movement by Congressional Democrats to address drug pricing, but little more than lip service in terms of support from the Biden administration. For now anyway, it seems that other pressing matters — battling the COVID-19 pandemic, supporting the US economy, and improving the nation’s infrastructure — have kept the administration from pushing for drug-cost legislation.

Of course, that could change going forward. Or perhaps not. In the meantime, the market does not like the ongoing uncertainty around the fate of US drug prices, which has recently pressured many pharmaceutical stocks and may continue to do so (not unlike the struggles of HMO and health care services stocks when Obamacare was in progress). Here’s my latest take on the risk facing the industry in the form of three possible scenarios to consider, including the…

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Wen Shi
PhD, CFA
Global Industry Analyst
Boston, MA
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1. When might a COVID vaccine become available?

In light of the recent positive news on the COVID vaccine front, it is possible that a vaccine could be authorized for use in the US as early as late 2020. Additional vaccines could be authorized or approved during the first quarter of 2021.

The logistics of vaccine distribution will be daunting. Under Operation Warp Speed, vaccine developers have already been manufacturing vaccine inventory at some risk, in anticipation of favorable efficacy and safety data. Nevertheless, the immediate demand will likely far exceed the initial supply.

Priority will be given to high-risk health care workers and first responders; then to people of all ages with comorbid conditions that put them at elevated risk of poor outcomes, along with older adults living in crowded circumstances; then to all adults over age 65; and so on. It’s likely to be well into 2021 before everyone in the US can be offered a vaccine.

2. What’s the prognosis for those infected?

It’s a moving target and depends on several factors, including the underlying health and age of the patient, the ever-improving medical knowledge of optimal case management, and the availability of medications active against the virus.

The observed death rate from COVID-19 has dropped considerably since the pandemic first reached the US and now stands at…

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Bob Deresiewicz
Bob Deresiewicz
MD
Global Industry Analyst
Boston
Wen Shi
PhD, CFA
Global Industry Analyst
Boston, MA
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